BACKGROUND REPORT: VLJ INDUSTRY AND COMMUNITY AIRPORTS
By
Robert C. Gaylord
CEO Stratigent, Inc.
Very
Light Jets (VLJs) are a new phenomenon in aviation.
They are a new category of jet aircraft being produced
by as many as six major players and an additional host
of "wannabees".
Eclipse
Aircraft founder Vern Raburn, former Microsoft executive,
had the initial vision of a low cost jet to be delivered
for under $1,000,000.00 and produced in large numbers,
up to 1,000 per year. For perspective, that is 3 times
the entire number of conventional business jets delivered
in 2003. With the idea of putting a "plane on every
corner to be hailed like a taxicab" the idea was
to not only build an aircraft but to change forever
the charter and fractional business model - this was
not an idea, it was a phenomenon.
Moving
ahead, Cessna Citation legitimized the concept by designing
the Citation Mustang to be a VLJ - thus proving that
there must be some merit to the idea. However, Citation's
Mustang has a price over twice as much as the intro
price of the Eclipse. Most of the other entrants are
designing aircraft closer to the Eclipse in price (however,
the price of all the aircraft is rising on the realities
of production). Embraer recently entered the fray also,
adding further momentum to the concept; however, the
current reality of all the VLJ talk is that it is mostly
conceptual. Not a single VLJ has been certified by the
FAA, much less delivered to a customer by any manufacturer.
There
are many moving parts of the business model to be nailed
down: Who will the buyers be? Who will the pilots be?
(The number of qualified, high performance pilots is
going down, not up) Who will insure them? (Insurance
companies are currently tightening the noose around
owner-pilots of high performance aircraft. Why? The
accident rate is terrible!) Who will loan the money?
Lenders will follow the lead of insurers.
THE
WAY AHEAD
It
is most likely that VLJs will be built and will create
a major effect on the market, over time. However, Stratigent
believes this will be incremental change. This incremental
change is very good for our airport development clients
because it gives them time to evaluate how to best capitalize
on VLJ private ownership, VLJ Charter Operations and
VLJ Fractional Ownership management businesses, all
of which have the potential to add value to airport
operations and prestige to the communities nearby.
Robert
Crandall, former CEO of American Airlines, has formed
a VLJ Air Taxi company called POGO. Crandall believes
an integral part of the future integrated US air transportation
system will be air-limo operations based on very light
jets. His hope, he said, is that "Pogo will become
the premier, on-demand, point-to-point jet service for
flights within 500 miles." Meanwhile, Pogo's timeline
could shift to the right along with the expected certification
date of the Adam A700 very light twinjet, 75 copies
of which Pogo announced it had ordered last May. However,
Crandall said in Las Vegas that Pogo is not committed
to the A700, and is also in talks with Eclipse and Cessna.
"We believe there will be a certified VLJ in the
spring of 2006 and Pogo will start operations in the
summer. If there isn't an airplane available, our startup
will be delayed." Based on industry delays to date,
Stratigent believes that Crandall's plans will be delayed.
POGO's
VP for Planning, Mike Bower, explained the air taxi
concept as using VLJs for trips within 500 miles of
NYC using 700 airports. Target customers are the "mass
affluent", who work hard, play hard, are brand
conscious, and place a high monetary value on time.
DAY JET, a POGO competitor, will provide no-frills affordable
transportation between secondary markets catering to
business travelers, such as sales persons and maintenance
technicians.
ANALYSIS
Stratigent
believes that neither of the above business plans are
currently ideal for our airport development clients.
Why? First of all, our clients are in long-term development
processes with currently operating facilities that need
some break even potential now. Second, trying to lure
production, sales and/or maintenance facilities for
VLJ manufacturers or air taxi operators is a long term
and low probability of success option.
Of
the manufacturers of VLJs, only Adam Aircraft has not
identified whether it will build regional service facilities.
However, they have established a service center in Lakeland,
FL. Eclipse has already named Gainesville as their SE
Regional service center. Embraer has no plan for service
centers and Cessna can use their already established
nation-wide network of dealers and FBO service centers.
However, gaining a Cessna service center for our clients
is a high priority part of our development plans - but
this strategy does not rest on the tenuous shoulders
of the VLJ market.
Stratigent
does believe that in certain affluent markets, the VLJ
sector will be quite robust over time and present various
profitable business opportunities both for dealers (sales
and service), air taxi operators and fractional companies.
Stratigent may be able to leverage our relationship
with Mr. Crandall, providing we can present a strong
business plan, to bring POGO to some of our airport
development clients.
BOTTOM
LINE
The
VLJ industry is in its infancy. It will be a gradual
phenomenon that will ramp up over a 7 to 10 year period
- thus providing our airport development clients the
luxury of moving toward the VLJ piece that develops
the strongest ROA for the airport authority and the
community.
Stratigent
will stay closely engaged with the VLJ players as well
as the ancillary businesses so we can best advise our
clients on the Way Ahead.
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